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Lithium carbonate short-term shock run, April or to meet the downside inflection point

From the supply side, a number of lithium companies in Jiangxi because of environmental protection and raw material restrictions and production stops, which limits the release of supply. However, with the gradual resolution of environmental issues, the warming of the weather, and the reduction of price increase expectations, the increase in mineral supply has led to the beginning of the decline in mineral prices. The production side is gradually recovering, coupled with the release of Chilean export arrivals and warehouse receipt write-offs, the trend of supply growth is relatively certain and the YoY growth rate is significant. Analyzing from the demand side, despite the significant growth in March's scheduling, the growth rate is expected to remain high in April. In addition, factors such as car price cuts, trade-in strategies, and the entry of Xiaomi cars into the market drove the actual significant increase in penetration observed in March. The market maintains optimistic expectations about the growth in demand, which is a strong support for prices. However, the market is likely to gradually cool down subsequently and prices may enter a retreat from high levels. Although the supply-side disturbances that supported the rise in lithium prices this month are gradually weakening, the demand side has not yet been disproved, and the rigidity of demand still exists, hence the lack of downward momentum in prices. In the longer term, as supply recovers and the demand side smoothes out, supply and demand are likely to weaken and prices may fall further.